News by Professionals 4 Professionals

manitoba security guard

Take advantage of growth, guard against risk with new US regime: Frum

Political commentator David Frum says there s good, bad and potentially ugly for Canadian farmers in the United States new and unpredictable Trump administration. Frum, a senior editor at The Atlantic magazine and, more recently, an owner of Ontario farmland, told the Grain Farmers of Ontario March Classic in London recently that global markets have been poor at pricing in political risk, so farmers should take steps to manage their risk themselves. The good for the economy includes a likely end to tepid economic growth in the U.S. over the past 15 years, said Frum.

ADVERTISEMENT

There is a big tax cut on the way in the U.S. It will have two powerful and positive effects, including putting more money in people s pockets and creating government deficits. Deficits are also stimulating to the economy, said Frum, who recently took possession of a piece of Prince Edward County farmland through a family succession process. Stimulus should lead to more demand for products, including food from Canada. That fiscal stimulus will be thrown into an economy that is already growing and creating more consumer confidence.

The Trump administration has already limited some of the regulations of the Dodd-Frank Act and as a result, consumer lending will be made easier.

There will also be a lot less petty, harassing regulation, especially in agriculture, he said. The Waters of the United States regulations was one of the worst offenders, said Frum, as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency was claiming authority over areas where water ran for limited periods of time each year. ADVERTISEMENT

The foot of government will be less on their neck and that will be a positive thing, he said. Regulatory changes in the U.S. will have knock-on effects here too.

He expects 2017 to be a bullish year and 2018 likely will be so too.

The bad

However, there are other concerns with the U.S. administration that we haven t seen from previous presidents. Not only is the Trump administration protectionist, it will be manifested in petty and capricious protectionism, through regulation, not through law, said Frum. He doesn t expect that the administration will have the capacity to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) anytime soon. But he expects to see petty harassment, including harassment of travellers.

ADVERTISEMENT

Trump s travel ban, now on six countries, isn t just affecting residents of those countries, but also the large diasporas of those countries. Foreign applications to U.S. universities are already down 40,000 year over year, Frum said, and businesspeople and professionals with conferences and holdings in the U.S. are limiting their travel. A rise in interest rates driven by consumer spending and greater deficits in the U.S. could mean a rising U.S. dollar, which could help Canadian exports. It could also inflame protectionist sentiment in the administration, which has yet to find much problem with Canada. Frum s other concerns include the way the Trump family is acting and the deals they are completing to their benefit, along with cash infusions they are taking from foreign entities.

The presidential family is behaving in a way the presidential family has never behaved before, he said.

He worries about the decline in public integrity, the tradition of a lack of corruption.

It is a precious, precious thing and once it is damaged it is hard to change it. It starts from the top.

The ugly

Frum said his concerns about potential ugly implications of the Trump presidency include areas harder to predict. He s chiefly concerned with the unpredictability and renegade tendencies of the Trump administration. There are members of the White House who can t even get security clearance because of their previous relationships and transgressions.

There s a real instinct for conflict and a bad instinct for bringing friends along.

Trump has also hit back at critical allies Germany, Britain and Australia. There s a potential for a conflict that the U.S. could get bogged down in and is in alone. However, Frum said, there are numerous ways that Trump could be sidelined in his tone and agenda, including by Congress, by the fact that government is paralyzed due to a lack of the many appointees needed to make it work, or by the potential Trump could find other interests that are less dangerous. The challenge for businesses is that no one knows, and unlike previous administrations, no one can predict outcomes from this administration. Managing that risk will be up to businesses themselves.

John Greig is a field editor for Glacier FarmMedia based at Ailsa Craig, Ont. Follow him at @jgreig on Twitter.

Guest editorial | Standing on guard; Canada facing own immigration issue

The following editorial appeared in the New Castle News, a CNHI newspaper. It does not necessarily reflect the opinion of The Tribune-Democrat. It s happening. But not the way people thought it would. In recent weeks, people began streaming from the United States into Canada.

But they re not disappointed Democrats, disgruntled Californians or, for that matter, anyone who might have voted for Hillary Clinton. The majority of the estimated 3,800 individuals illegally stealing across the world s longest unprotected border into Canada since Feb. 3 are anxious refugees and undocumented immigrants fearing detention or deportation and seeking asylum. According to London s Daily Mail, most of those slipping across America s northern border this winter are carrying passports from Syria, Somalia, Burundi, Eritrea, Ghana and Sudan, Turkey, Columbia or Mexico.

Many obtain tourist visas to the United States then jump into airport taxis and deliver themselves to Canadian border checkpoints where they asked for asylum. Others, laden with luggage still bearing airline tags, walk across fields, wade through ditches and push baby strollers in deep snow from Quebec to Manitoba to elude Canadian border patrols and the Royal Canadian Mounted Police. Some have lived in the United States for years.

When seeking office, then-candidate Donald Trump promised to deport or incarcerate 2 million to 3 million undocumented immigrants with criminal records living in the United States. The surge of asylum seekers has grown since now-President Donald Trump issued his ban temporarily barring travelers from seven Muslim-majority countries. They are now flowing into Canada in response to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau s offer to welcome those in need with open arms and open hearts. Since Jan. 1, according to the RCMP in Manitoba, located to the north of North Dakota, almost 200 asylum seekers have braved freezing temperatures and sometimes waist-deep snow to cross the border into Emerson, Manitoba population 689. An estimated 1,200 have illegally entered Quebec since November, according to the Canada Border Services Agency.

Although border patrol union officials are calling for 1,000 more workers and conservatives in Parliament are calling for a refugee strategy and housing and support service resources are being stressed in rural areas where the crossings are happening, Public Safety Minister Ralph Goodale said the increase isn t enough to warrant additional border security measures. But, he said, the government is following closely the recent accelerated rate of crossings. Canada adheres to the Canada-U.S. Safe Third Country Agreement of 2004. In this, any one in the United States, which is considered a safe country, can t request to be admitted into Canada as a refugee.

However, refugee status may be requested once the individual is on Canadian soil. Generally 60 percent are accepted. Border patrols at official border crossings are turning back those who have already made refugee claims in the United States prompting the increase in illegal entries. An estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants living in the United States may now fear for their future. Canada, which has vast, unpopulated spaces and dwindling family sizes, may be looking to a wave of immigrants to fill their nation. But Canada has also not experienced its own 9/11 attack by irrational militants determined to destroy America.

The Nation to the North is free to open its borders to anyone it wants. But to avoid its own Trump-like backlash somewhere down the road, Canada should heed the warnings of its own government officials who are calling for a strategy to cope with these unexpected visitors, as well as the call of the Canadian border patrol to have more workers.

Guest editorial | Standing on guard; Canada facing own immigration …

The following editorial appeared in the New Castle News, a CNHI newspaper. It does not necessarily reflect the opinion of The Tribune-Democrat. It s happening. But not the way people thought it would. In recent weeks, people began streaming from the United States into Canada.

But they re not disappointed Democrats, disgruntled Californians or, for that matter, anyone who might have voted for Hillary Clinton. The majority of the estimated 3,800 individuals illegally stealing across the world s longest unprotected border into Canada since Feb. 3 are anxious refugees and undocumented immigrants fearing detention or deportation and seeking asylum. According to London s Daily Mail, most of those slipping across America s northern border this winter are carrying passports from Syria, Somalia, Burundi, Eritrea, Ghana and Sudan, Turkey, Columbia or Mexico.

Many obtain tourist visas to the United States then jump into airport taxis and deliver themselves to Canadian border checkpoints where they asked for asylum. Others, laden with luggage still bearing airline tags, walk across fields, wade through ditches and push baby strollers in deep snow from Quebec to Manitoba to elude Canadian border patrols and the Royal Canadian Mounted Police. Some have lived in the United States for years.

When seeking office, then-candidate Donald Trump promised to deport or incarcerate 2 million to 3 million undocumented immigrants with criminal records living in the United States. The surge of asylum seekers has grown since now-President Donald Trump issued his ban temporarily barring travelers from seven Muslim-majority countries. They are now flowing into Canada in response to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau s offer to welcome those in need with open arms and open hearts. Since Jan. 1, according to the RCMP in Manitoba, located to the north of North Dakota, almost 200 asylum seekers have braved freezing temperatures and sometimes waist-deep snow to cross the border into Emerson, Manitoba population 689. An estimated 1,200 have illegally entered Quebec since November, according to the Canada Border Services Agency.

Although border patrol union officials are calling for 1,000 more workers and conservatives in Parliament are calling for a refugee strategy and housing and support service resources are being stressed in rural areas where the crossings are happening, Public Safety Minister Ralph Goodale said the increase isn t enough to warrant additional border security measures. But, he said, the government is following closely the recent accelerated rate of crossings. Canada adheres to the Canada-U.S. Safe Third Country Agreement of 2004. In this, any one in the United States, which is considered a safe country, can t request to be admitted into Canada as a refugee.

However, refugee status may be requested once the individual is on Canadian soil. Generally 60 percent are accepted. Border patrols at official border crossings are turning back those who have already made refugee claims in the United States prompting the increase in illegal entries. An estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants living in the United States may now fear for their future. Canada, which has vast, unpopulated spaces and dwindling family sizes, may be looking to a wave of immigrants to fill their nation. But Canada has also not experienced its own 9/11 attack by irrational militants determined to destroy America.

The Nation to the North is free to open its borders to anyone it wants. But to avoid its own Trump-like backlash somewhere down the road, Canada should heed the warnings of its own government officials who are calling for a strategy to cope with these unexpected visitors, as well as the call of the Canadian border patrol to have more workers.

1 2 3 34